Mathematical models & statistical models!
Markets reward you based on your perception. Those who treat it as a casino they get ‘casino returns’. Your returns depend upon the model you use to analyse companies. I can look at companies from mathematical models or statistical models.
What is the difference?
Statistics studies uncertainty. Mathematics formulates certainty. Math offers certainty & statistical model handles uncertainty. Math is like a game of chess & Statistics is like playing cards (or cricket).
I am inherently aware of the limitations of statistical models.
Treating a statistical model (or event) as a mathematical outcome can be dangerous. Mathematics will flourish in backtesting strategies but will fail in predicting the future.
An investor needs both the models. But he must understand the difference & respect that difference.